What are the Real Odds on Trump’s Re-election?

With only a few months remaining until the next US presidential election on November 3, speculation is rife regarding Trump’s odds. While his diehard fans maintain the idea that the man is a positive force for change, his detractors point to his noted dishonesty, instability, and bizarre deflection as fundamental reasons for opposition.

According to official bookmakers, the odds on the next US president not being Trump are given at 5/6. While this number is likely to shift as the elections approach, such a lean by the usually mathematically astute industry might well accurately indicate the incumbent’s real chances. Widening the scope, there are other established patterns and ideas which, if maintained, could illustrate the November outcome.

One such pattern comes from how the last three presidents, Obama, Bush Jr., and Clinton all won back-to-back terms. From a simplistic viewpoint, this might indicate an emphasis the US public has on consistency. Nevertheless, looking at it from this angle also requires an examination of the last one-term president, Bush Sr., and what left him as a single-termer.

By most accepted accounts from political historians, Bush Sr. lost his second election due to weaknesses in the economy. This is generally thought to have been the result of what his predecessor, Ronald Reagan, accomplished in terms of economic policy. Reaganomics, as it is colloquially called, was based around a trickle-down approach that, while beneficial for the ruling class, proved myopic and harmful for the working class and overall economy.

If we use this alone as a basis, the growing economy following Obama’s recovery would not make Trump’s second term a failure. At least, that might have been the case had the current global economy not run into such drastic complications. As these complications continue, it’s unknown what overall effect they might have on later odds or the market built around it.

Depending on who is asked, another ongoing problem might come as what the greater world has seen as Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior and dishonesty. As of December 16, 2019, Trump had a recorded 15,413 lies on record during his time on office, a number which continues to grow. While this consistent verifiable dishonesty might not have affected the odds in any appreciable way, the same cannot be said for some of his more outrageous claims.

A prime example of this can be seen in his criticism of previous presidents for, among other things, playing too much golf. Despite this, Trump has golfed far more than any president in recent history, at a current cost of around $134 million to the American taxpayers.

Of course, none of this matters if the Democrats can’t provide a viable opponent. At this point, Joe Biden appears locked for the Democrat nomination, though questions remain if he could win on merit, or simply by being the only major option against Trump. It’s important to note that Biden, as with the Democrat party overall, is still right-wing by international standards, which fails to inspire the faith of more progressive voters.

With Biden giving 6/5 to Trump’s 10/11, the coming election is too close to yet call. While the months leading up to an election in any year are the most important, rarely has this proven as true as in 2020. According to previous behaviors, patterns, and a consistent shifting of the Overtone window, calculating Trump’s chances is no easy feat. For both punters and the public, it looks we’re all going to have to spend the next few months on the edge of our seats.